Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 2058 | 23129 | 60 | 7 | 408 | 582 |
| October 03 2020 | 2100 | 23296 | 63 | 7 | 397 | 573 |
| October 04 2020 | 2123 | 23391 | 65 | 7 | 389 | 537 |
| October 05 2020 | 2152 | 23394 | 68 | 7 | 376 | 535 |
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| October 07 2020 | 2211 | 24159 | 69 | 8 | 324 | 508 |
| October 08 2020 | 2264 | 24352 | 71 | 8 | 324 | 530 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 3.1% | 10 | 0.09% | 21 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 5.9 | 16% | 52 | 0.38% | 86 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 9.0 | 25.9% | 84 | 0.4% | 151 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.4 | 13.6% | 44 | 0.32% | 73 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 4.3 | 11.1% | 36 | 0.34% | 49 | 0.47% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.3 | 15.4% | 50 | 0.4% | 74 | 0.59% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.3 | 8.6% | 28 | 0.24% | 48 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.4 | 6.2% | 20 | 0.19% | 30 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 53 | 35.4 | 100% | 324 | 0.31% | 530 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 610 | 15169 | 24 | 0 | 128 | 154 |
| October 03 2020 | 630 | 15327 | 25 | 0 | 141 | 164 |
| October 04 2020 | 641 | 15413 | 26 | 0 | 143 | 165 |
| October 05 2020 | 649 | 15501 | 27 | 0 | 132 | 169 |
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| October 07 2020 | 698 | 15761 | 29 | 0 | 152 | 209 |
| October 08 2020 | 730 | 15930 | 30 | 0 | 175 | 232 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 6.9% | 12 | 0.15% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.9 | 5.7% | 10 | 0.12% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 2.1 | 12.6% | 22 | 0.31% | 31 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 3.7 | 17.7% | 31 | 0.37% | 39 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.6 | 12% | 21 | 0.27% | 27 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 3.6 | 18.3% | 32 | 0.33% | 46 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 9.1% | 16 | 0.19% | 23 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.3 | 16% | 28 | 0.39% | 31 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 32 | 19.3 | 100% | 175 | 0.27% | 232 | 0.36% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 504 | 9093 | 24 | 6 | 82 | 97 |
| October 03 2020 | 516 | 9140 | 24 | 6 | 91 | 105 |
| October 04 2020 | 522 | 9143 | 24 | 6 | 85 | 102 |
| October 05 2020 | 522 | 9150 | 24 | 6 | 78 | 102 |
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| October 07 2020 | 535 | 9161 | 28 | 6 | 69 | 110 |
| October 08 2020 | 553 | 9194 | 28 | 6 | 75 | 116 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 3245 | 26344 | 52 | 3 | 547 | 870 |
| October 03 2020 | 3284 | 26591 | 54 | 4 | 499 | 809 |
| October 04 2020 | 3299 | 26653 | 55 | 4 | 461 | 731 |
| October 05 2020 | 3336 | 26669 | 55 | 4 | 390 | 714 |
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| October 07 2020 | 3399 | 27309 | 58 | 8 | 352 | 614 |
| October 08 2020 | 3441 | 28170 | 59 | 8 | 386 | 603 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 1% | 4 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 6.1 | 19.7% | 76 | 0.46% | 127 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 9.1 | 28.2% | 109 | 0.51% | 197 | 0.93% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.7 | 11.9% | 46 | 0.34% | 64 | 0.47% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.7 | 8.3% | 32 | 0.24% | 43 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.3 | 10.1% | 39 | 0.27% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.7 | 10.1% | 39 | 0.27% | 53 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.7 | 10.6% | 41 | 0.32% | 52 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 42 | 33.7 | 100% | 386 | 0.33% | 603 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 10217 | 200458 | 382 | 43 | 1270 | 1762 |
| October 03 2020 | 10339 | 201164 | 384 | 43 | 1299 | 1704 |
| October 04 2020 | 10452 | 201238 | 386 | 43 | 1249 | 1637 |
| October 05 2020 | 10514 | 201655 | 387 | 43 | 1169 | 1619 |
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| October 07 2020 | 10734 | 204606 | 400 | 43 | 1127 | 1694 |
| October 08 2020 | 10841 | 206251 | 405 | 43 | 1078 | 1638 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.6 | 5.1% | 55 | 0.09% | 69 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 14.9 | 15% | 162 | 0.23% | 286 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 20.6 | 22.9% | 247 | 0.24% | 400 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 11.6 | 16% | 172 | 0.22% | 266 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 10.1 | 12.9% | 139 | 0.21% | 196 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 13.0 | 14.1% | 152 | 0.23% | 216 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 9.0 | 8.3% | 90 | 0.16% | 129 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 9 | 6.7 | 5.7% | 61 | 0.12% | 76 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 107 | 91.4 | 100% | 1078 | 0.2% | 1638 | 0.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 02 2020 | 127906 | 1445571 | 7506 | 1353 | 23736 | 30627 |
| October 03 2020 | 130798 | 1456763 | 7588 | 1372 | 24866 | 31236 |
| October 04 2020 | 132663 | 1465713 | 7646 | 1377 | 24339 | 31436 |
| October 05 2020 | 134359 | 1472577 | 7702 | 1381 | 23531 | 31861 |
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| October 07 2020 | 138698 | 1493304 | 7951 | 1415 | 22836 | 32766 |
| October 08 2020 | 141830 | 1506828 | 8061 | 1424 | 24242 | 33506 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 95 | 75.6 | 3.2% | 785 | 0.12% | 1094 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 298 | 227.1 | 9.9% | 2410 | 0.32% | 3596 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 555 | 423.7 | 18.2% | 4419 | 0.58% | 6439 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 515 | 365.6 | 15.5% | 3750 | 0.5% | 5151 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 513 | 365.3 | 15% | 3642 | 0.52% | 4898 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 475 | 400.7 | 16.8% | 4076 | 0.5% | 5539 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 397 | 294.9 | 12.1% | 2933 | 0.39% | 3878 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 284 | 228.4 | 9.2% | 2227 | 0.35% | 2911 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 3132 | 2381.3 | 100% | 24242 | 0.42% | 33506 | 0.58% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.6 | 63.2 | 72.1 | 35.4 | 43 | 12.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.9 | 19.3 | 10 | 13.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.6 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 33.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 76.7 | 92.6 | 33.7 | 68.4 | 10.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 40.2 | 38.5 | 91.4 | 113.1 | 8.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.5 | 47.5 | 85.1 | 2381.3 | 2090.7 | 18.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 19.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1567"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges